National Center for Health Statistics, “Excess deaths associated with COVID-19,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, updated August 5, 2020, cdc.gov. This year, roughly 163,000 “extra deaths” have occurred during this same time period, an increase of 17 percent. In a typical year, approximately 953,000 Americans would have been expected to die from any cause from March 1 to the end of June. In 2020, the United States has deviated noticeably from this curve. In any given year, the number of people that die in the United States follows a relatively stable curve that varies predictably over the course of the year. deaths hit estimated 37,100 in pandemic’s early days, far more than previously known,” Washington Post, May 2, 2020, .Ī distinct possibility exists that the number of lives lost has been understated. Wu J et al., “60,000 missing deaths: Tracking the true toll of the coronavirus outbreak,” New York Times, May 6, 2020, .īrown E, Tran A, and Thebault R, “Excess U.S. The immediate and direct potential impact of COVID-19 has already resulted in thousands of lives lost and significant incremental cost to the healthcare system. The immediate and direct impact of COVID-19
ADVANCED CARE SYSTEM 9.4 DRIVERS
In this article, we examine two independent and potential drivers of delayed or indirect impact: exacerbations of certain chronic and episodic conditions that result from deferred or canceled treatment, and new and worsening behavioral health conditions. Consider seeking advice of legal and other relevant certified/licensed experts prior to taking any specific steps. The recipient remains solely responsible for all decisions, use of these materials, and compliance with applicable laws, rules, regulations, and standards. References to specific products or organizations are solely for illustration and do not constitute any endorsement or recommendation. Given the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, these materials are provided “as is” solely for information purposes without any representation or warranty, and all liability is expressly disclaimed. These materials do not constitute legal, medical, policy, or other regulated advice and do not contain all the information needed to determine a future course of action.
These materials are not a guarantee of results and cannot be relied upon. Future results may differ materially from any statements of expectation, forecasts or projections. These materials reflect general insight based on currently available information, which has not been independently verified and is inherently uncertain. These materials are being provided on an accelerated basis in response to the COVID-19 crisis. However, there will likely be additional layers of delayed or indirect impact that result from deferred or canceled treatment, longer-term and unknown health impacts of those who recover from COVID-19, the physical and behavioral health impact of sheltering in place, and the tertiary health effects stemming from an economic downturn. In the coming months, more deaths will undoubtedly occur as a direct result of the virus. 1Ĭoronavirus Resource Center, “COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University,” Johns Hopkins University, 2020,. This article was written in collaboration with Erica Hutchins Coe (partner in McKinsey’s Atlanta office), Kana Enomoto (expert in the Washington, DC, office), Patrick Finn (senior partner in the Detroit office), John Stenson (partner in the New York office), and Kyle Weber (partner in the Chicago office).ĬOVID-19 has already taken a staggering toll in the United States, with more than 178,000 lives lost as of mid-August 2020.
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